Coming out of 2021, when there were signs that the economy and commercial lending were on the rebound, we continued to see growth in the first quarter of 2022, despite some growing headwinds. But a look at the broader market and economic forces shaping 1Q2022 commercial lending trends show that there are forces, including the Fed’s first rate hike in three years and excess liquidity in the banking system, that may temper the benefit that banks realize and slow any rebound. What the Leading Economic Indicators are Telling Us Coming into the first quarter, the economy was heating up, with C&I loan growth accelerating; however, since that time the impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant on the overall economic rebound has started to show. But what are the four variables central to commercial lending demand—Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), unemployment rates, and the Business Confidence Index (BCI)—showing in terms of potential future growth?